![]() ![]() You ask-how is that possible? Well, it’s because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.Ī good example is the Yom Kippur War of 1974. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorly-but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me-then I’m not going to change my war game. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. But that’s not the right way to look at it. Goemans: Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory.How do expectations affect war strategy and the likelihood of peace? While the terms may have shifted in Ukraine’s favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. You need the opponents to change their mind. But you don’t just kill the enemy and that’s that. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. ![]() The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Goemans: No, it’s not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected.
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